wexqon Hacker News • Recommends
On “How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?”
The article recommends watching the video by Matt Parker, and so do I. Great refresher on probability (or luck, if you will) For convenience: link to this video
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#probability#statistics#minecraft
How lucky is too lucky?: The Minecraft Speedrunning Dream Controversy Explained
Stand-up Maths
1.3M subscribers • 12 videos on Hallway
- Recommended by 5 people: 5 on Hacker News.
- A classic. People kept recommending it from 2021 to 2025.
- Presented by Matt Parker, mathematician and stand-up comedian
Beginner. No background in the topic needed.
8.3M views5 years ago5 recommendations
Computer scienceMath for programmers
Matt Parker explains the probability and statistical arguments behind the Minecraft speedrunning cheating controversy involving Dream.
Buy my book Humble Pi now! mathsgear.co.uk/collections/books/products/humble-pi-signed-… My talk on 4 February 2021 at Harvard Book Store: harvard.com/event/virtual_event_matt_parker/ Here is the original accusation against Dream. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=-MYw9LcLCb4&ab_channel=Geosquare Paper: mcspeedrun.com/dream.pdf And here is Dream's reply. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=1iqpSrNVjYQ&ab_channel=DreamXD Paper: drive.google.com/file/d/1yfLURFdDhMfrvI2cFMdYM8f_M_IRoAlM/vi… "Matt flips a coin 100 times." youtu.be/T2Xtit17snE "Holy Craps! How a Gambling Grandma Broke the Record" content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1901663,00.html Number of casinos in the world in 2011: 3,547 statista.com/statistics/221031/total-worldwide-casinos-by-re… Roulette records. roulette17.com/stories/record-reds-blacks-in-a-row/ CORRECTIONS - At I say “1 in 110 trillion” when I meant to say “1 in 110 billion”. The number on the screen is correct, it was just a verbal slip-up. - At I showed the 118 craps record as “1 in 1.2 × 10^9” when it should be “1 in 2.2 × 10^9”. The voiceover says the correct number. - I slip and “more likely” instead of “less likely” at (I think I may have even been going for “more unlikely”). But everything in the screen is correct. - Let me know if you spot any more mistakes! Thanks to my Patreon supporters who mean I can spend [[REDACTED]] hours filming myself trying to achieve improbably things. If you support me, you can get access to all [[REDACTED]] hours of bonus footage from this episode. patreon.com/standupmaths As always: thanks to Jane Street who support my channel. They're amazing. And I believe they have no opinion on Dream. janestreet.com/ Endless filming by Matt Parker Editing by Alex Genn-Bash Some graphics by Ben Sparks Minecraft consultancy by Oliver Dunk Music by Howard Carter Design by Simon Wright and Adam Robinson MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician Website: standupmaths.com/ US book: penguinrandomhouse.com/books/610964/humble-pi-by-matt-parker… UK book: mathsgear.co.uk/collections/books/products/humble-pi-signed-…Why it's here
5 people recommend thisWhat people say. Recommended as an engaging and clear explanation of probability, negligible probabilities, and statistical evidence in cheating detection.
teekerton Hacker News • Recommends
On “A layman’s guide to recreational mathematics videos”
Maybe nice to mention that Matt Parker's Stand-up Maths video on the cheating on a MiceCraft speed-run is really very nice 0. It not only exposes the cheater, it also gives some intuition into negligible probabilities. 0: link to this video
t_mannon Hacker News • Recommends
On “Dear Chess World”
The key point (in the end) seems to be that the odds for a streak like Niemann had are about 1 in 80k. Statistically speaking, I'd say that's a long shot from a smoking gun. Here's a good rundown of a case where a cheater is considered to have been exposed by statistical evidence, but those odds were on a completely different scale, 10^22: link to this video Basically the mistake that is easy to make is that we shouldn't ask: "what is the probability that Hans plays five tournaments like that in a row?", but "what is the probability that someone will play five tournaments like that in a row?". Even if we correct for the fact that there are probably more Minecraft speedruns happening than GM tournaments…
uolmiron Hacker News • Recommends
On “Diablo hackers uncovered a speedrun scandal”
There have been several of these deep dives into manipulated speed runs and they seldom disappoint. Since we are on HN, I'll mention another mathy one that was summarized by Matt Parker: link to this video
contravarianton Hacker News • Recommends
On “Napkin Math Tool”
…ideo on it 1. He settles on 10^-19 as something that you can be fairly sure has never happened (deliberately). As for other stuff in the probability rows, maybe include a couple of well known paradoxes like the birthday paradox. And be clear what you're saying, things like getting dealt a royal flush depends a lot on the type of poker game. 1: link to this video…
robgaon Hacker News • Mentions
On “How Lucky Is Too Lucky in Minecraft?”
BBC's radio show More or Less did a great piece on this recently. link It is related to Matt Parker's youtube video link to this video which has already been mentioned on this post.
Ygg2on Hacker News • Mentions
On “We think this cool study we found is flawed. Help us reproduce it”
It can still be a fair die. The context implies it's not, but it's only unlikely, not impossible. See link to this video It introduces a 10 billion human second century i.e. 3.1 x 10^19. If your chance times it is greater than 1 then it's definitely plausible to be done by someone, somewhere.