A visual guide to Bayesian thinking

…improve your mathematical reasoning. 2. 30 minute break. 3. Read section 2 (approx 5 minutes). Goal: enlightenment. 1. The most important mathematical video you will ever see in your life. Firstly, unless you are a practicing mathematician this is the most important mathematical video you will ever see in your life. It is purely about mathematics: link to this video Watch it. Suppose that you take an hour and learn this. You have just improved your rational thinking forever. - Break. Please now take a 30-minute break. During this time you can reflect and assimilate the knowledge you have learned. - 2. The most important social insight you will read in any comment. This section requires you to understan…

…5 minutes). Goal: social insight. 4. Generalize the insight just gained. Goal: make the example more practical. This is an exercise for the reader. ---------- 1. One of the most important mathematical videos you will ever see. Firstly, unless you are a practicing mathematician this is one of the most important mathematical video you will ever see: link to this video Watch it. As a result you will improve your rational thinking forever. - Break. I suggest you next take a 30-minute break. During this time you can reflect on and assimilate the knowledge you have learned. - 2. An important social insight. This section requires you to understand section 1. Next, suppose that you are perfectly rational. We w…

>You have two options, choose one: Your analysis is sensible. Where we should choose the most likely explanation, it might become sharper: - In case you're not familiar with it, one helpful tool is prior probability (Bayesian thinking). This video is short and accessible: link to this video - There is a public intelligence budget in 2018 of $54.9 billion in the United States1, as compared with the combined annual R&D expenditure of Apple, Google, Intel, and Microsoft at $53.2 billion2. This employs over 100,000 people3. - According to Snowden, they covertly use microphones.4 He had reporters put their mobile phones in a fridge/microwave, since they could be turned on remotely. A sensible assump…

Bayesian statistics at play here... Good explanation: link to this video Imagine a world where there are 100 unvax and 9 million vaxed, now even if vaccines are 99% effective, you'd get 9M x 0.01 = 90k vax and sick.