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Arithmetic, Population and Energy - a talk by Al Bartlett

lXlSalemlXl

274 subscribers • 1 video on Hallway

YouTube
  • Recommended by 6 people: 6 on Hacker News.
  • A classic. People kept recommending it from 2016 to 2023.
  • Presented by Al Bartlett, Professor of Physics
  • An opinion. It argues one side of a question engineers disagree on.

Beginner. No background in the topic needed.

200K views13 years ago6 recommendations

Computer scienceMath for programmers

Professor Al Bartlett explains the mathematics of exponential growth and its consequences for population, energy consumption, and resource depletion.

Most of the leaders of this world and most of the media around the globe barely talk about it, but the subject remains one of the most important issue coming for the next 100 years... and beyond ; Growth and Sustainability. Thank you Al.

Why it's here

6 people recommend this, 1 disputes it

What people say. Highly recommended by engineers as a mind-changing lecture on understanding exponential functions and compounding.

jiggawattson Hacker News • Recommends

On “Ask HN: What are some deep, mentality changing books?”

…e. It's based on the Dictator's Handbook, which I should read also, but the CGP video was an effective summary already! link Last, but not least, if I'm allowed to include lecture videos, then the "Arithmetic, Population and Energy" lecture by Al Bartlett is absolutely amazing. You will never see the news in the same way again after watching it: link to this video…
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simonblackon Hacker News • Recommends

On “Why don’t I know anyone who knows anyone with Covid-19? [pdf]”

"Two minutes past twelve." The problem with stuff like this is that most people have no knowledge about the dangers of exponential growth. It only takes an hour, but it's the most valuable use of an hour of your lifetime to watch Prof. Bartlett's talk on exponential growth in 'Arithmetic, Population and Energy': link to this video
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maerF0x0on Hacker News • Recommends

On “Ask HN: Name one idea that changed your life”

Compounding, growth etc link to this video Taught me the logical impossibility of the stock market to go up by x% per year, forever. Taught me that getting better today (however small) can give resources to getting better(er?) tomorrow. Taught me that many "experts" just say whatever to get voted in or to get a budget without regards to the absurdity of their own statements, and that many people eat up this kind of absurdity without fact checking / validating it.
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qpwoeirutyzzzzon Hacker News • Recommends

On “How climate change is rapidly taking the planet apart”

For starters have fewer or no kids, and stop traveling frivolously by air. Aircraft emissions, because they are made at high altitude, have a climate impact that is leveraged by a factor commonly estimated to be 2.7 higher than the same emissions if made at ground-level.1 1. link edit: also relevant link to this video
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knorkeron Hacker News • Recommends

On “Restarting my career after motherhood”

The population pyramid is not sustainable. The exponential function just will not allow for the combination of age pyramid and our increasingly effective health care keeping us alive to all become parents. Watch this talk: link to this video Tl;DW: we can not prevent the end of exponential population growth. We can only choose how it ends. By starvation, war, disease, or fewer births. Pension systems have relied on growth for a long time, but it's just not mathematically possible is the long run.
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RetroTechieon Hacker News • Recommends

On “Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist”

Great read! Reminds me of this lecture: link to this video Al Bartlett - Arithmetic, Population and Energy Amazing how again & again, even so-called 'experts' can't do math, or ignore fundamental physics constraints. Never mind news outlets or the general public. And... most people don't understand exponential growth. Which brings me to b) math + physics is much much much much more reliable than people. So if you understand the physics involved, do the math, conclude that it can't possibly work, but someone (expert or otherwise) says it will work: go with your calculator. :-)
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abetuskon Hacker News • Disputes

On “Ask HN: Name one idea that changed your life”

For me, this type of thinking does the exact opposite in that it has a chilling effect on finding solutions and correctly assessing reality. While some of what Al Bartlett says is true, that unfettered exponential growth can't go on forever, other statements are misleading or outright false. He has a soapbox about limiting population growth now (in the US) 0, tied in to concepts of peak oil and other "dark green" talking points. This type of thinking misses the larger picture. The irony is that exponential growth happens all across the board, not just in population growth and energy usage but in innovation for more efficient energy usage and in finding alternative energy sources. Al Bartle…
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acqqon Hacker News • Mentions

On “What's Really Warming the World?”

…unless you believe that world consists only of the US of A, it's most of the scientists all around the world. If you simply say that the short-term politics is more important for you than the future of the world, I can at least understand. Anyway, "the greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function": link to this video…
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gambleron Hacker News • Mentions

On “Alarming study shows massive insect loss”

There is an old lecture that draws this exact parallel: "Arithmetic, Population and Energy" link to this video
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bjourneon Hacker News • Mentions

On “The Saudis Are Lying About Their Oil Production?”

Peak oil featured prominently in Al Bartlett's talk about exponential growth. link to this video Still a good talk, but it seems he was wrong about peak oil, just like Malthus was wrong about population growth.
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z8rHZM8Svhu8hE2on Hacker News • Mentions

On “History of energy consumption in the United States, 1775–2009 (2011)”

In this context, the old lecture on the exponential function of energy consumption comes to mind. Arithmetic, Population and Energy - a talk by Al Bartlett: link to this video
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