Skip to content
Hallway
0:00 / 0:00

#statistics#dataanalysis#benford'slaw

Do these scatter plots reveal fraudulent vote-switching in Michigan?

Stand-up Maths

1.3M subscribers • 12 videos on Hallway

YouTube
  • Recommended by 4 people: 4 on Hacker News.
  • Presented by Matt Parker, mathematician and comedian

Beginner. No background in the topic needed.

905K views5 years ago4 recommendations

Computer scienceMath for programmersData visualization

Matt Parker analyzes scatter plots from a claimed election fraud analysis to show how the patterns arise from basic statistical misunderstandings.

Here is the Dr Shiva Ayyadurai video I am talking about: youtube.com/watch?v=Ztu5Y5obWPk This is my previous video on Benford's Law: youtube.com/watch?v=etx0k1nLn78 Support me on Patreon and I'll make more maths videos. Probably not on election data, mind you. (Please, for the love of plot, no more election data.) patreon.com/standupmaths The page of working-out from this video is on eBay with all money going to the charity WaterAid. ebay.co.uk/itm/363180157841 This is where the Kent County data comes from: electionreporting.com/county/db3f9865-656b-4704-9429-bd38e72… Here is the spreadsheet I show in the video with my plots: dropbox.com/s/7gusbewresl6zsg/Kent%20County%20Precinct%20Dat… Dr Shiva's video title is "Dr.SHIVA LIVE: MIT PhD Analysis of Michigan Votes Reveals Unfortunate Truth of U.S. Voting Systems." but the presentation within the video is called "Mathematics Analysis of Trump-Biden 2020 Election Vote Counts in Four Counties in the State of Michigan". And finally, I know I didn't mention it in the video but Humble Pi is still cheap at Waterstones and signed at Maths Gear: waterstones.com/book/humble-pi/matt-parker/9780141989143 mathsgear.co.uk/products/humble-pi-signed-paperback CORRECTIONS - At do I say "date" here instead of "data"? I think I do. I meant "data". - In hindsight I should have said one more "subtract the percentage of people who voted by party who voted Republican" at about . But my diagram points at the right bit so it should be clear. - Let me know if you spot any more mistakes! Thanks to my Patreon supporters who mean I can spend ANOTHER TWO DAYS trawling through election stats and making EVEN MORE plots. These videos had better be making a difference. patreon.com/standupmaths As always: thanks to Jane Street who support my channel. They're amazing. janestreet.com/ Filming and editing by Matt Parker Music by Howard Carter Design by Simon Wright and Adam Robinson MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician Website: standupmaths.com/ US book: penguinrandomhouse.com/books/610964/humble-pi-by-matt-parker… UK book: mathsgear.co.uk/collections/books/products/humble-pi-signed-…

Why it's here

4 people recommend this

What people say. Engineers recommend this video as a clear explanation of why comparing percentages across different bases leads to misleading statistical conclusions.

szcon Hacker News • Recommends

On “What we can learn from the latest indoor dining study”

…the 5% was 5% of Google's annual revenue. Which is larger? The same thing is happening in the above - it isn't okay to calculate the probabilities in two situations and then try to cross compare them for size. Sadly this error seems to be cropping up quite a lot! Matt Parker (Stand-up Maths) has an example of this and related to a recent election: link to this video . His explanation is likely better than mine.…
View on Hacker News

trevor-eon Hacker News • Recommends

On “YouTube to remove content that alleges widespread election fraud”

I really hope something is done against Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai's content. He's been posting highly misleading/disingenuous election fraud material in order to gain a following, and people are believing it because he touts his PhD from MIT. Honestly at this point between his senate run and "Inventor of Email" scandal I'm surprised MIT hasn't had a response. For example, here's a video that debunks many of his claims: link to this video
View on Hacker News

nitrogenon Hacker News • Recommends

On “California Public Utilities Commission fired director who exposed missing $200M”

I am replying for the sake of the hidden sibling comment: I don't watch any major media coverage of politics, but a mathematician and comedian I follow on YouTube (from a different country who presumably has no horse in the race) has analyzed some of the numerical allegations of fraud: - link - link to this video - link
View on Hacker News

hinkleyon Hacker News • Recommends

On “Nuclear technology’s role in the world’s energy supply is shrinking”

Don't. Compare. Percentages. Stand-up Maths called this out recently and it's good to mention. I think this might be the video: link to this video Give me the output and our total consumption please.
View on Hacker News

ehsankiaon Hacker News • Mentions

On “U.S. Capitol Locked Down Amid Escalating Protests”

> Can you link me to those majority of cases? link to this video link And this third one just shows how much of a joke some of the claims in the lawsuits are: link Like, this is basic high school level statistics they can't even get right.
View on Hacker News

pwinnskion Hacker News • Mentions

On “The Lies that can Undermine Democracy”

This is just bad, bad, bad math. Try running the exact same analysis for Biden votes. Turns out that drops too. "The one thing they should never do is drop" turns out to be completely incorrect! link to this video
View on Hacker News