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#p-value#statistics#confidenceintervals

Dance p 3 Mar09

Geoff Cumming

2.9K subscribers • 1 video on Hallway

YouTube
  • Recommended by 2 people: 2 on Hacker News.
  • A classic. People kept recommending it from 2011 to 2015.
  • Presented by Geoff Cumming, Professor of Psychology at La Trobe University
  • An opinion. It argues one side of a question engineers disagree on.

Beginner. No background in the topic needed.

82K views17 years ago2 recommendations

Computer scienceMath for programmersAlgorithms

Geoff Cumming uses simulations to demonstrate the high variability of p-values and argues for using confidence intervals instead.

I use a simulation from my ESCI software to illustrate the enormous variability in the p value, simply because of sampling variability. That's the dance of the p value. Never trust a p value--it's too unreliable! Use estimation, not NHST! Most researchers don't appreciate just how unreliable the p value is!

Why it's here

2 people recommend this

What people say. Recommended as an excellent and intuitive visual explanation of why p-values are unreliable and how they vary across replications.

knowledgesaleon Hacker News • Recommends

On “Ask HN: What interesting non-intuitive things do you know?”

…he single p-value criterion. With issues like this in mind, in my opinion, it makes sense to be somewhat skeptical when seeing reports in the news that "A effects B" and definitely not to rush with the conclusions. Trivial, I know. The 3 video pretty much sums it up and by all means is worth a watch. ------------------- 1 link 2 link 3 link to this video…

poon Hacker News • Recommends

On “Psychology Journal Bans Significance Testing”

The audio is a bit quiet but the 'dance of the p values' video 1 linked to by the article is absolutely fantastic and well worth watching. 1 link to this video

lomnakkuson Hacker News • Mentions

On “Gravity waves from Big Bang detected”

I can't claim to understand much of the statistics, but according to 1, p-values are pretty sketchy as a measure of "is this likely to be true?" 1 link to this video