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#statistics#probability#benfordslaw

Why was Biden's win calculated to be ONE IN A QUADRILLION?

Stand-up Maths

1.3M subscribers • 12 videos on Hallway

YouTube
  • Recommended by 1 person: 1 on Hacker News.
  • Presented by Matt Parker, mathematician and comedian

Beginner. No background in the topic needed.

1.3M views5 years ago1 recommendation

Computer scienceMath for programmersComputation and complexity

Matt Parker analyzes the statistical claims in a Supreme Court filing and explains why the probability calculations are mathematically flawed.

This is Part III out of 'one with a quadrillion zeros' parts. Give the gift of Stand-up Maths this Christmas: patreon.com/standupmaths mathsgear.co.uk/ Part I: "Why do Biden's votes not follow Benford's Law?" youtube.com/watch?v=etx0k1nLn78 Part II: "Do these scatter plots reveal fraudulent vote-switching in Michigan?" youtube.com/watch?v=aokNwKx7gM8 Here is the Supreme Court filing from the State of Texas: supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/22O155/162953/2020120723461153… Declaration of Charles J. Cicchetti, Ph.D. is in the appendix of this document, starting on page 20. supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/22O155/163048/2020120813282788… Behold my declaration. dropbox.com/s/337h06gx5t6tjte/Declaration%20of%20Matthew%20T… Here is the spreadsheet where I checked the combinations of states won by Democrats. dropbox.com/s/d1sat2bjb1ts9n3/combinations-of-states-won.xls… CORRECTIONS - At I accidentally said “Senate” when I meant “Congress”. But on-screen it says “House Republicans” so I think it still makes sense despite my mis-speak. - Let me know if you spot any more mistakes! Thanks to my Patreons who mean I can keep throwing time and effort at videos about this election. And don't worry, I am a prudent spender of your money: that judge's robe was hired not purchased outright. But I do now own the wig. patreon.com/standupmaths As always: thanks to Jane Street who support my channel. They're amazing. janestreet.com/ Music by Howard Carter Design by Simon Wright and Adam Robinson MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician Website: standupmaths.com/ US book: penguinrandomhouse.com/books/610964/humble-pi-by-matt-parker… UK book: mathsgear.co.uk/collections/books/products/humble-pi-signed-…

Why it's here

1 person recommends this, 1 disputes it

What people say. Recommended as a clear, high-school-level breakdown of how statistical arguments can be easily manipulated or misunderstood in public debates.

nitrogenon Hacker News • Recommends

On “California Public Utilities Commission fired director who exposed missing $200M”

I am replying for the sake of the hidden sibling comment: I don't watch any major media coverage of politics, but a mathematician and comedian I follow on YouTube (from a different country who presumably has no horse in the race) has analyzed some of the numerical allegations of fraud: - link to this video - link - link

ehsankiaon Hacker News • Disputes

On “U.S. Capitol Locked Down Amid Escalating Protests”

> Can you link me to those majority of cases? link link And this third one just shows how much of a joke some of the claims in the lawsuits are: link to this video Like, this is basic high school level statistics they can't even get right.

nick238on Hacker News • Mentions

On “Suspicious data pattern in recent Venezuelan election”

There were some pretty shit analysises of the 2020 US elections that Matt Parker covered with videos like "Why do Biden's votes not follow Benford's law?"1 and "Why was Biden's win calculated to be 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000?"2. I don't know about other countries, but the amount of data that every county in every US state produces makes systematic fraud pretty much impossible. If there's literally only 3 numbers produced by the Venezuelan government, you need to be seriously incompetent to have detectable fraud because techniques like Benford's or Zipf's law need lots of individual numbers. 1: link 2: link to this video